AriRusila's Conflicts

Israeli-Palestinian Fears

Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) has published their quarterly research e.g. on levels of support for the two-state solution, (which is that support for the two-state solution has dropped to 51 per cent support in Israel and has stayed steady on 51 per cent support among Palestinians). However the really worrying results were related to fears of Israelis and Palestinians: As many as 56 per cent of Israelis are worried or very worried on a daily basis that they will be murdered by Arabs and 79 per cent of Palestinians are worried or very worried on a daily basis that they will be murdered or have their land confiscated by Jews.

psrlogoThe Palestinian sample size was 1200 adults interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip in 120 randomly selected locations between June 3 and 6, 2015. The margin of error is 3%. The Israeli sample includes 802 adult Israelis interviewed in Hebrew, Arabic or Russian between June 2 and 14, 2015. The margin of error is 3%. The poll was conducted jointly by the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the for Palestinian Center Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah. This joint survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah and Jerusalem.

These are the results:

MAIN FINDINGS

(A) Conflict management and threat perceptions

  • Now, after forming a right wing government in Israel led by Benjamin Netanyahu, we asked both sides about their expectations for the future: 6% of the Israelis and 27% of the Palestinians think that the two sides will soon return to negotiations. 28% of the Israelis and 29% of the Palestinians think that the two sides will return to negotiations but some armed attacks will take place. 43% of the Israelis and 20% of the Palestinians think that some armed attacks will take place and the two sides will not return to negotiations. Finally, 8% of the Israelis and 18% of the Palestinians think that the two sides will not return to negotiations and there will be no armed attacks. In December 2014, 32% of the Israelis and 37% of the Palestinians thought that the two sides will not return to negotiations and some armed attacks will take place and 8% of the Israelis and 10% of the Palestinians thought that the two sides will not return to negotiations and there will be no armed attacks.
  • Among Israelis, 56% are worried and 41% are not worried that they or their family may be harmed by Arabs in their daily life. Among Palestinians, 79% are worried and 21% are not worried that they or a member of their family could be hurt by Israel in their daily life or that their land would be confiscated or home demolished.
  • The level of threat on both sides regarding the aspirations of the other side in the long run is very high. 56% of Palestinians think that Israel’s goals are to extend its borders to cover all the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and expel its Arab citizens, and 25% think the Israel’s goals are to annex the West Bank while denying political rights to the Palestinians. 43% of Israelis think that Palestinian’s aspirations in the long run are to conquer the State of Israel and destroy much of the Jewish population in Israel; 18% think the goals of the Palestinians are to conquer the State of Israel. Only 17% of the Palestinians think Israel’s aspirations in the long run are to withdraw from all (6%) or some (11%) of the territories occupied in 1967 after guaranteeing its security. 27% of Israelis think the aspirations of the Palestinians are to regain some (12%) or all (15%) of the territories conquered in 1967.
  • At the same time: 9% of the Israelis say the aspirations of Israel are to withdraw to the 1967 borders after guaranteeing Israel’s security. 33% say that Israel’s aspirations are to withdraw from parts of the territories after guaranteeing Israel’s security. 18% say that Israel’s aspirations are to annex the West Bank without granting political rights to the Palestinians living there. 14% say that these aspirations are to annex the West Bank and expel the Palestinians living there.
  • Among the Palestinians 38% say that the aspirations of the Palestinian Authority and the PLO are to regain some of the territories conquered in the 1967 war. 30% say the Palestinian aspirations are to regain all the territories conquered in the 1967 war. 13% say that the Palestinian aspirations are to conquer the State of Israel and regain control over the pre 1948 Palestine. 10% say that these aspirations are to conquer the State of Israel and destroy much of the Jewish population in Israel.

 

PSR poll December 2014
PSR poll December 2014 [http://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/505]
(B) Negotiation Tracks on the Agenda

The Saudi Plan

  • 21% of the Israelis and 52% of the Palestinians support the Saudi peace plan, 67% of the Israelis and 44% of the Palestinians oppose it. In December 2014, 27% of the Israelis and 43% of the Palestinians supported the Saudi peace plan, while 63% of the Israelis and 53% of the Palestinians opposed it. The plan calls for Arab recognition of and normalization of relations with Israel after it ends its occupation of Arab territories occupied in 1967 and after the establishment of a Palestinian state. The plan calls for Israeli retreat from all territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza, the West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and the establishment of a Palestinian state. The refugee problem will be resolved through negotiations in a just and agreed upon manner and in accordance with UN resolution 194. In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders, will sign peace treaties with Israel and establish normal diplomatic relations.

The Israeli-Palestinian Track

  • Dismantling settlements – 38% of the Israelis support and 54% oppose the dismantling of most of the settlements in the West Bank as part of a peace agreement with the Palestinians.
  • 51% of Israelis and 51% of Palestinians support the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, known as the two-state solution and 43% of Israelis and 48% of Palestinians oppose it. In June 2014, 62% of the Israelis and 54% of the Palestinians supported this solution and 34% of the Israelis and 46% of the Palestinians opposed it. In December 2014, 58% of Israelis and 48% of Palestinians supported a two-state solution and 37% of Israelis and 51% of Palestinians opposed it.
  • Mutual Recognition – As we do periodically in our joint polls, we asked Israelis and Palestinians about their readiness for a mutual recognition as part of a permanent status agreement and after all issues in the conflict are resolved and a Palestinian State is established. Our current poll shows that 44% of the Israeli public supports such a mutual recognition and 45% opposes it. Among Palestinians, 44% support and 54% oppose this step. In December 2014, 54% of the Israeli public supported such a mutual recognition and 36% opposed it. Among Palestinians, 39% supported and 60% opposed this step.

[Source: Palestinian Center Policy and Survey Research ]

Palestinian Center Policy and Survey Research
PSR is an independent nonprofit institution and think tank of policy analysis and academic research. PSR was founded with the goal of advancing scholarship and knowledge on immediate issues of concern to Palestinians in three areas: domestic politics and government, strategic analysis and foreign policy, and public opinion polls and survey research. PSR research units conduct and organize four types of activities: research and policy analysis, empirical surveys and public opinion polls, task forces and study groups, and meetings and conferences. The units focus on current public policy issuesn with a special reliance on empirical research as a tool to advancen scholarship and understanding.
PSR is dedicated to promoting objective andn nonpartisan research and analysis and to encouraging a better understanding of Palestinian domestic and international environment in an atmosphere of free debate and exchange of ideas. PSR is registered as a nonprofit institution in the Palestinian Ministry of Justice.
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  1. KURDISTAN CAN WILL CHANGE THE GEOPOLITICAL WORLD MAP.

    Expert assessment of Academy of Geopolitics.

    That that the Kurdish factor becomes one of key Mesopotamia in geopolitical war of the people we wrote long ago: http://clubvi .ru/news/2014/07/23/12%20sargsan/ . But the Kurdish ethnos in the Middle East so far very difficult consists of what monoethnic groups and teyp to describe. Till August 20 in the Iraqi autonomy of Kurdistan will be there are events which can define not only the near future alignment of forces in the Kurdish ethnos and in destiny of its state education, but also in change of frontiers of Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia. And the main player in this paradigm geopolitical opposition is the president of the Kurdish Autonomy in the north of Iraq – Masoud Barzany. Whether there will be he on a post of the President of Kurdistan, breaking all laws of the Autonomy, or will resign we learn soon. But while there is a war it remains to secret diplomacy round Kurdistan.
    For example, Iran supports that M. Barzani remained as the president of Kurdistan for 2 years if he agrees to conditions of Iran (See a photo).

    The commander of the Iranian forces of Kuds Kassem Soleimani arrived to the city of Erbil, on August 3 and to meet the president of Regional Kurdistan Masoud Barzani to discuss extension of presidential term.

    According to our information of M. Barzani asked Iran to send the envoy to PSK parties also Goran to Suleymaniya to convince them to change the decision on change of presidential term. But Iran has some conditions to support Barzani. Conditions of Iran for Barzani include refusal of claims of the independent state, strengthening of the relations with Baghdad and departure from Turkey. And it can lead to a new war «all – against all»:http://rusdozor.ru/2014/12/05/kirkuk-stanet-prichinoj-vojny-v-mesopotamii/.

    Masoud Barzani accepted these conditions. He wants to remain the president of Kurdistan for 2 years.

    The commander of the Iranian forces of Kuds Kassem Soleimani and the Deputy Secretary of State of the Supreme Council of Iran on national security (GKNB) of Ahmad Amiri already visited in Suleymaniya to meet officials of PSK and Goran.

    Oil can add to fire that fact that the Commander of the Iranian forces of Kuds Kassem Soleimani in a confidential situation, visited from July 24 to July 26 to Moscow and V. Putinim met the President of Russia. http://rusdozor.ru/2014/11/30/o-geopoliticheskom-fiasko-ssha-i-izrailya-v-kurdskom-voprose/.

    Arayik Sargsyan, the President of Academy of Geopolitics, the academician, the Honourable Consul of Macedonia in Armenia.

    http://rusdozor.ru/2015/08/09/kurdistan-mozhet-izmenit-geopoliticheskuyu-kartu-mira/

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