AriRusila's Conflicts

Russia cancelled its South Stream gas pipeline project in December 2014 replacing it with new Turkish Stream pipeline. The follow-up of this Russian-Turkish project is re-routing the energy supply in whole Eastern Europe with Greek and Tesla [Balkan] Stream gas pipelines.

image001The head of Russian gas producer Gazprom stated on 7th May 2015 that the firm had decided to start building the Turkish Stream pipeline and that preparations to build the undersea stretch of the pipeline were under way. During a meeting between Gazprom’s Alexei Miller and Turkish Minister of Energy Taner Yildiz, the parties sent a resounding message to gas markets: the Turkish Stream will be brought on stream in 19 months. Natural Gas Europe reports: “We had very efficient and crucial talks today. It was agreed to bring onstream Turkish Stream and to start gas supplies in December 2016. Gazprom, while implementing its portion of work under the Turkish Stream project, will follow the agreements reached today,” Miller said in a note released on 7th May 2015.

“Gazprom has moved to the construction stage of the sea part of the Turkish Stream pipeline,” Gazprom chief executive Alexei Miller said in an interview with a Russian television. The Russian firm may be reviving the infrastructure that it built for the South Stream. South Stream gas pipeline construction in shallow waters will begin in first 10 days of June 2015. The pipes originally bought for South Stream will be used for the Turkish Stream. For laying the pipes in the bottom of Black Sea, Russia rented two pipe-laying vessels from Italian Saipem company in last fall. Following the cancellation of the South Stream pipeline project in late 2014, Gazprom has paid €25 million monthly to Saipem without any usage of the vessels – Castoro Sei and Saipem 7000.

Recently there has been some tensions between Russia and Turkey. Russia’s President Putin participated to the ceremony in Yerevan to commemorate the Armenian victims of the 1915 events, and Turkish leaders have made some critical comments over situation of tatars in Crimea. However now it seems that the Turkish and Russian delegations have renewed their commitment to increase energy ties. (More e.g in NaturalGasEurope ) .

While South Stream Pipeline project was replaced with Turkish Stream and planning is going on to continue project with Greece and Tesla Streams some serious threats still remain that could endanger the projects. These mostly have to deal a reoccurrence of instability in Macedonia [look my article Terrorism in Macedonia Wasn’t An Isolated Act! ]


Gas to Europe

There are three main sources of supply of pipeline gas to Europe. They are Russia, Norway and North Africa. Norway probably will keep or even reduce the volumes. Besides, North Africa provides gas only to Italy and Spain and its volumes have significantly reduced in recent years.

During last years LNG (liquid natural gas) has came more to European gas markets. There is now more LNG gas terminals in Europe and some new terminals will came in 2015 e.g in Poland and Lithuania so in principle it is possible to import LNG from US. However Europe has decreased its LNG imports due its high price; and as Asian LNG import prices as well demand are much more higher than those in Europe it seems that LNG is not real alternative to Russian gas. LNG suppliers have redirected the volumes of liquefied natural gas to other premium markets and Europe can only be guided by those surpluses when they are not in demand in Asia.

The construction of the Trans Anatolian Pipeline, which will connect the South Caucasus Pipeline to the Turkish-Greek border is already initiated and the construction of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline, bringing gas to the Italian market, will follow. These investments will secure some 10 billion cubic metres of gas a year from Azerbaijan by 2019 to the European market.

The Russian gas to Europe has now three main energy high ways: 1st The Nord Stream via Baltic Sea, 2nd Jamal, four pipelines through Belarus and 3rd Transgas or pipelines through Ukraine. More than 86 billion cubic meters (bcm) of the gas exported to Europe by Gazprom passed through Ukraine’s pipeline network in 2013 – about half of the total. There is also some economic reason to re-route Russian gas via Turkish Stream instead of Ukraine as modernising Ukraine’s gas transport system is estimated to cost 19.5 billion dollars.

After building the first Turkish Stream line, the existing Bulgaria Turkey line will be empty, however it can be used for reverse flow to Bulgaria. (Source: NewEurope )


Re-routing energy supply in Eastern Europe

Turkish Stream will redesign completely the energy supply route in Turkey and Eastern Europe. Gas that is currently transported via the Trans-Balkan Pipeline through Ukraine to Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey will be re-routed so that Turkey will become the first and not the last recipient of gas in the supply chain. One new aspect are gas interconnectors between Central and East European countries. These interconnectors allow a much better crisis supply of gas, together with new reverse-flow capacities.

Gazprom has already told Europe that it plans to cease using its current export route through Ukraine in 2019 and shift those natural gas supplies to the Turkish Stream pipeline. As Russia now begins construction on the first of Turkish Stream’s four parallel pipelines, each with a capacity of about 16 billion cubic meters. Gazprom can use this first pipeline to supply Turkish natural gas market. Three other pipelines can be implemented when EU and especially Central and East European countries decide to build infrastructure to deliver gas from Turkey to European markets currently transported by the Trans-Balkan pipeline (TBP) to Turkey via Ukraine, Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. The expiration of a transit agreement on Russian gas supply through Ukraine in 2019 along with the completion of Turkish Stream mean that TBP will likely be suspended. This in itself would be beneficial to Turkey as its security of supply would no longer be vulnerable to Russia’s political stand-offs with Ukraine or other eastern European countries along the route.

On 7th April 2015 representatives of five countries – Hungary, Serbia, Macedonia, Greece and Turkey – met in Budapest, announcing the formation of a working group to facilitate natural gas deliveries – specifically infrastructure development – to their markets from gas emanating from Turkey including possible participation in the Turkish Stream pipeline. The group has pledged to meet again in July and hopes to involve Albania and Bosnia & Herzegovina.

As for whether Gazprom can finance its three major pipeline projects the company has a strong balance sheet, relatively low level of net debt and robust cash flow. Considering it has spent $20 billion on transport over the last few years, the spending required on Turk Stream, Power of Siberia and Altai averages about $10 billion/year.


One of the main factors in Moscow’s shift from South Stream to Turkish Stream was the EU’s Third Energy Package (TEP). Under these rules, a single company cannot own the pipeline through which it also supplies gas. Neither Russia nor Turkey is an EU member, and so neither are bound by the TEP, which makes the construction of Turkish Stream much easier. However, the construction of Turkish Stream is not the only issue at stake. The pipeline will have to stop at the Turkey- Greece border because of the TEP rules, given that Greece is an EU member state.

In order to transport its gas to Greece and onwards, Gazprom needs to use existing interconnectors – either TAP or Interconnector-Turkey-Greece-Italy, including the DESFA-operated Greek National Gas Transmission System (NGTS). Turkish Stream will traverse the Greek territory as ‘Greek Stream’ and then it will spread itself into two routes. Turkish Stream will traverse the Greek territory as ‘Greek Stream’ and then it will spread itself into two routes. A main line towards the North via FYROM and Serbia and one towards Italy, merging itself with the Italy-Greece Interconnector (ITGI) which originally was to transfer Azeri sourced gas from Western Greece to Southern Italy via the Adriatic Sea. It is of interest to note that ITGI is already eligible under the EU’s Projects of Common Interest (PCI) and it is already owned by 50% by the Italian Company Edison which is a subsidiary of the French EDF.

That detail is of great importance regarding the EU Commission’s clauses of the Third Energy Package that will prohibit an involvement of Gazprom in that sector. Thus Greek Stream is envisaged as a 50-50 project between the Greek DEPA (and DESFA) and Gazprom and the remainder would be a DEPA and Edison partnership. It is supposed that the Italian market would also be used as a stage point for the introduction of some quantities of Russian gas into France as well. (Source and more in Natural Gas Europe )

Trans Adriatic Pipeline and the Turkish Stream pipeline will not be competitive, as each of them will have an own role to play. TAP cannot satisfy the huge demands in natural gas of the European states and peoples and that the project would not be an alternative to the Turkish Stream.

The Greek extension of a pipeline to pump Russian natural gas through Turkey to consumers in southern Europe could cost about 2 billion euros and its construction will create about 20 000 working places. An agreement on the construction of the Greek extension of a proposed pipeline to pump Russian natural gas through Turkey to consumers in southern Europe could be signed at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum on 18-20 June 2015.


Tesla Stream

Turkish Stream is replacing the previous South Stream project which Moscow ditched due to EU (and Bulgarian) resistance to unblock construction. The “Tesla Stream” is an offshoot of “Turkish Stream”. The concept is to connect ‘Turkish Stream’, the Russian pipeline to Turkey’s Eastern Thrace region, to a new hub on the Turkish-Greek border. Tesla pipeline would move gas further across the territory of Greece to the former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), Serbia, Hungary, reaching the Baumgarten gas hub in Vienna, Austria. So compared to South Stream Turkish and Tesla Streams are detouring through Greece and Macedonia to compensate for the exclusion of Bulgaria.

The foreign ministers of Greece, Macedonia, Serbia and Hungary met 7th Apr. 2015 in Budapest to explore their potential participation in Russian plans for the new Turkish Stream pipeline. In the joint declaration on strengthening cooperation in the energy sphere which was signed at the end of the meeting, the parties “expressed their support for the idea of creating commercially viable routes and sources by supplying natural gas from Turkey to countries in Central and South-Eastern Europe via the territory of the member countries”. It was also emphasised that the pipeline would be fully covered by EU regulations. After this positive response Russia’s President Putin and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras have discussed the construction of the so-called Greek Stream pipeline across Greek territory. ‘Russia confirmed its readiness to consider the issue of funding the public and private Greek companies that would be involved in the project’ reads a note published on the Kremlin’s website, referring to the gas transportation system on the Greek territory.

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Geopolitical aspect

Russia, Turkey and the West all share one rival in the Balkans: political instability. Located at the confluence of three historic empires, the strip of land between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea has long been the focus of competition among global powers. Now it is just one arena in the standoff between Russia and the West. The United States and the European Union have been involved in the internal politics of the Balkans since NATO committed troops in the aftermath of the Bosnian war and the conflict in Kosovo in the 1990s.

Recently with the help of the local revolutionaries and ethnic terrorists, the West was trying to destabilize Macedonia (FYROM) in order to overthrow the democratically elected government and to withdraw the country from the Tesla Stream. (More background in my article Terrorism in Macedonia Wasn’t An Isolated Act! and Oil Geopolitics: The South Stream Pipeline Has Been Replaced by “The Balkan Stream” by Andrew Korybko). Also US has already contacted Greece and expressed the negative stance of Washington regarding the Turkish Stream in general.

The bottom line from my perspective is that Turkish Stream will deliver 14 billion cubic metres per year to the Turkish market and there is a good change that another 49 billion cubic metres Russian gas per year will flow to Europe – partly for fulfilling the contracts already signed – via a new hub on the Turkish-Greek border and through Greece and Tesla Streams.

Ο Αγωγός Balkan StreamIn my opinion it is also noteworthy that Turkish Stream and the creation of a gas hub on the Greek Turkish border, coupled with the planned TAP and TANAP pipelines, give Greece and Turkey more reason to enhance cooperation on energy matters as all these lines are generating remarkable transfer fees for both countries. Similarly also from its side Tesla Stream will create significant transfer fees for Macedonia (FYROM), Serbia, Hungary and Austria in addition to their energy security.

Related article: Is South Stream Pipeline Transforming Itself To “Turk Stream”?




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  1. PUTIN FINANCES party of President Erdogan to win the elections to the Parliament: PROGRESS Kurdish horse. When Kurdish politician Selaheddin Demirtas started singing in Armenian, to win the presidential elections in Turkey, we were not surprised, and even wrote about it: .

    But Demirtas, who heads the People’s Democratic Party (HDP) Turkey may become the Kurdish horse in a big geopolitical game Trtsii by which Turkish President Erdogan may lose, or strengthen their power. If last year’s presidential election in Turkey, Erdogan defeated segment Gulen in Turkey only through the financial support of Russian President Vladimir Putin, then these elections Russia will make his bet or only erdoganskuyu Justice and Development Party (AKP) . While Moscow will support the People’s Democratic Party (HDP) in the parliamentary elections in Turkey. According to some experts on Turkey, in connection with this event every day there are conflicting and shocking news. Thus, in the last comment refers to the possible resignation of the incumbent Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. To achieve Justice and Development Party (AKP), the mark of 45% of the president is ready, if necessary, re-take the post of head of the party. After all, the election victory will guarantee his release in the shortest time of all suspected and accused of corruption, which have been implicated in the events of 17-25 December 2013: -iz-krizisa.html.

    However, the reality is poor. Economic indicators work against the current government.

    Representatives of the party in a panic. Global Projects hung in the air. There is no money in the treasury, despite huge financial assistance to Russia, including a discount for gas in the amount of up to 13%. Systematic actions and opposition rallies show that in her hands all the forces focused for the upcoming fight. Major parties such as the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), the People’s Democratic Party (HDP) and the Coalition Party and the Party of the great happiness of the union by their actions indicate the AKP that it will not be so easy Again take a dominant position. For the first time since 2002 the wind blows against the current government.

    Promises from the opposition about double pensions, without the diesel excise and the minimum wage of 1,500 Turkish Liras and enjoy one’s soul to the Turkish electorate. In addition, the growing interest in self-nominees of the parties. In Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir are deputies Hasan Shyukur possessing sympathy voters also influenced by the percentage of the collected signatures there. Another factor adversely affecting the vote for the AKP: the growth trend “a blind fashion” for the unification of the Party and the Party of the great happiness of the union (SP – BBP). Such nationalist alliance in Istanbul, Ankara and Western Armenia can really surprise. According to statistics, about 65% of the population of these regions consider themselves “believers” and 53% “nationalists” chtopozvolyaet these parties, united in an alliance to show a new image of the Turkish party.

    The ratio of votes for the National Alliance (Milli ?ttifak) in a study that we conducted last month, was about 4.1%. But now there is a sharp increase in the popularity of this movement: the citizens perceive it as an alternative to the ruling party. According to statistics, every third voter, and it is about 34%, voted for the AKP “reluctantly.” Among the main reasons is the fact it is the absence of a suitable replacement, but now it is still there. To the question “can you cast your vote for the AKP?” About 14% of the voters answered “probably could” and 8% answer uncertainly – “maybe”.

    National Alliance will receive considerable support from the female population, as due to unresolved issues related to unemployment and education of children, the majority of women are no longer vote for the AKP. Elections will be held on June 7. Today, for the alliance collected a total of about 5.1%, but most likely, the number of supporters will grow more. Chances set a large number of votes in Istanbul, Ankara and Western Armenia: “Armenia and the Kurdish autonomy to the creation of strategic alliances”: .

    An important factor working against the AKP, is Syria, and all the events that happen to her. Sounding chief of staff departure from the post due to illness was seen as a message to the current government. If this were done appropriately way, the reason for the resignation could not believe. It is very strange that this resignation was voiced right now. The chief of staff was ill and had been treated before, but we have a word about it, nor spirit did not know. It is undeniable that there is a hidden meaning, referring to the policy on Syria. Experts from the Academy of Geopolitics analyzed in detail Turkey’s actions in Syria and Iraq, “the US created the LIH in exchange for al-Qaida to assign Iraqi oil. CONTINUED – NEXT TURKISH ”

    The message to the public that it drew attention to the actions of the AKP in this country. It is also possible that it may be linked to the Kurdistan Region. After the incident in the town of Agri – Diyadin became clear that there was not quite comfortable situation both within the army as well as in most of the AKP. Even despite the fact that there is a core, Erdogan, some members of the AKP do not agree with the policy of Turkey in Syria. All these events are not held by the people, reflected in the percentage of votes.

    Due to the falling number of voting AKP looking for a way out of this situation. To date, the estimated 40% of the vote the President will be able to raise another 5%, and the 116th article of the Constitution gives him that right. It says that if the Council of Ministers will not receive a vote of confidence, or will not get the support it needs in the vote, and if, after the resignation of Prime Minister within 45 days of the new Council of Ministers will not be formed, or formed without the vote of confidence .

    President of the Republic, after consultation with the Chairman of the Turkish Grand National Assembly has the right to call new elections.

    There are several scenarios for further developments. And here it is worth noting that only in case of loss AKP Erdogan have the opportunity to lead the people to the new elections.

    Scenario number 1

    Folk Democrats stop at a 10% barrier. AKP, exceeding 44% of the vote, an opportunity to change the country’s constitution. In this case, Erdogan still for a long time to build a system of government in Turkey, and from his palace to expel it will not work: “you never know. Especially in these days when the exhumed body of former Turkish President, an ethnic Kurd Turgut Ozal. Ex-Turkish President Turgut Ozal, whose remains were exhumed at the beginning of last month, was poisoned. This was reported by the Turkish media. According to the forensic experts in tissue samples in the study it was found on the basis of strong poison strychnine. The body of the former head of state, he could get food or drinks, according to specialists. According to the official version of Turgut Ozal died of a heart attack April 17, 1993 – .

    Scenario number 2

    Public Democrats (HDP) gain the necessary number of votes, and thus, if the percentage of votes cast for the Republican People’s (CHP) and nationalists (MHP), is very high, it is likely that the AKP will lose power. Then Erdogan will represent the minority party. Due to the fact that the party did not receive a vote of confidence, it will come from the government. Within 45 days – due to the lack of a new government – the president will lead the country to new elections, “Who will be the new president of Iraq? “Http://

    Scenario number 3

    Folk Democrats will overcome the required 10% threshold, the AKP did not gain the necessary number of votes, will again be in the minority, and then it will be done all the same as in the scenario ? 2. A minority does not get a vote of confidence, and Erdogan will require re-election. However, in this formula, there is another scenario – Democrats (HDP) can support Erdogan and create a coalition with him.

    Scenario number 4

    Folk Democrats win. If you vote for the Republican People’s Party and the Nationalist also increase, the majority of the AKP in parliament will come to naught. And only the influence of the Presidential Palace will remain significant. Erdogan will be able to get everyone to come to the re-election: “It is appropriate to say that the policy pursued by the US and Israel on the Kurdish issue and joined other countries in the Middle Vostoka- Turkey, Armenia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Lebanon and Azerbaijan. The fact that the head of the Turkish Intelligence (MIT), Hakan Fidan (ethnic Kurd) and the special services of Armenia Hakobyan serve the interests of Israel and the structure of the secret CIA «Gladio», says a lot “: -v-ukraine-sozdali-sekretnye-sluzhby-nato.html.

    For articles in two countries of our region are ethnic Kurds presidents; Iraq – Fouad Massoum and Azerbaijan – Ilham Aliyev, whose father, the late Mr. Heydar Aliyev was a native of Armenia.

    We do not find the answers to many questions related to tactical changes in the behavior of the United States on Iraq and the Kurds, if we try to look for them only in the US-Kurdish relations. One of the versions, in our opinion, may lie in the fact that the US suddenly really realized that “lose” Iraq whole, in general. And that the risk of losing the territory, for example, the same Russia and Iran “-

    Scenario number 5

    After a number of deputies of the Party of Justice and Development decrease, why not get started and other coalitions, such as the Republican People’s Party CHP and nationalist MHP, which, according to mathematical calculations, it is possible. If a vote for them will be high and HDP, the AKP will be weakened.

    Despite the election results, the board levers still remain Erdogan. Who can make him give up the government K?l?çdaro?lu? Erdogan himself is able to choose the prime minister. In its submission is 550 members, of which he can find a suitable nominee for the post. He did not care about the opinion of others, whether he will transfer this function Davutoglu also not yet clear.

    With the same success it could invite his son-Berat Albayrak, saying: “Take the government and rule, my son!” Hardly June 7 elections will solve the problem of Turkey. To understand the essence of the Kurdish factor of contemporary Turkish politics have to say that again, “in November 1996, near the village of Susurluk near Istanbul occurred car accident fatalities. Killed were traveling in the same car and the godfather of the head of the Grey Wolves Chatli Abdullah, wanted by Interpol for worldwide assassinations, the deputy chief of police of Istanbul and an influential member of parliament from the Kurdish population.

    It was hard to imagine a more striking proof of complicity of the Turkish state in drug trafficking and terrorism. It was immediately withdrawn in the US or Brussels representatives of the central Gladio in Turkey (Marc Grossman), Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan (Major Douglas Dickerson). In the United States, away from the scandal, he was sent off and the head of the Turkish Gladio (“counter-terrorist forces”). Susurluk initiated the “quiet” revolution in Turkey, in which was defeated by the secular elite neo-fascist military, intelligence and police officers, constituted the backbone “of the Turkish Gladio.” In its place came “moderate” Islamists.

    And the center of gravity of the subversive operations was moved to a cult organization Turkish Islamist Gülen is headquartered in Pennsylvania, USA. CIA: returned Gulen from Turkey on his plane, saving him from arrest and faithful in prison for propaganda against the secular nature of the Turkish state. The US funds the organization Gülen grew by leaps and bounds and now reaches 50 billion dollars. Hundreds of madrassas and mosques built this
    organization in Central Asia and Russia has become a hotbed of Salafism and a cover for the CIA.

    For a brilliant career in the United States were Gulen Graham Fuller and a member of the Chechen Committee Morton Abramowitz, large shady dealers of US policy and NATO. Fuller, orientalist and ideologist of the CIA to lobby the rate of US foreign policy on political Islam, was part of a task force Gladio-USA, to operate in Turkey in the 1990s – 2000s in the period of major terrorist attacks in Russia. Fuller recently became known in Russia as a former test “Uncle Ruslan” Tsarnaeva, who led the Islamic Foundation in the United States, through which the funding was going Caucasian al-Qaida. Today Islamic card against Russia “Gladio” leader used so-called “Crimean Tatar Majlis” Dzhamylya Mustafa and his organization … “

    Returning to the phenomenon of “Kurdish horse” in modern Turkish politics, about the person S. Demirta?, I must say that he is one of the biggest projects of the Turkish Intelligence (MIT), an ethnic Kurd H. Fidan, as expert evaluation was given to the Academy of Geopolitics still September 2014: .

    Arayik Sargsyan, Academician, President of the Academy of Geopolitics, Honorary Consul of Macedonia to Armenia.

  2. US may provoke escalation of situation around Iran – expert. Arayik Sargsyan, academician, President of geopolitical academy, Hororary Consul Of Macedonia. February 07, 2012 | 14:59 YEREVAN. – The U.S. may provoke escalation of situation around Iran, Vice-Chairman of the Russian Geopolitics Problems Academy Arayik Sargsyan said at a press conference on Tuesday. According to him, statements by the U.S. senior officials testify that information war is already in progress. Moreover, Iranian nuclear scientists and experts die, thus terrorist attacks are committed in the territory of the Islamic Republic. The expert believes there can be several scenarios of clashes: Saudi-Arabia-Iran, Turkey-Iran or Israel-Iran. “Will Israel attack Iran? Everyone expects provocations, not necessary in the Strait of Hormuz. It is possible to occur in the territory of the U.S. Something resembling 9/11, as a result Iranian special service will be blamed,” the expert said. As for the question if Azerbaijan will risk taking what it does not possess and launch the second Karabakh campaign, the expert did not rule out such possibility adding that Baku is openly speaking about Iranian territories.

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